Since the new year is right around the corner, bloggers and
marketers alike are posting their predictions as if a
psychics convention has come to town.
So in keeping with that tradition, I'd like to post a few of
my own. But unlike those who post their predictions in point
form, I won't make a specific list but rather share with you
some of my thoughts. (Near the end, however, this post will culminate in what I
believe will be three major trends to watch out for and dive
into, if you want to make some serious money in 2008 and
beyond.) First off, let me state that you may or may not agree with
me on these. But something is definitely going on right now
that points to these three trends. All the clues are pretty
evident, and you've probably seen some of these yourself. What I'm talking about is... ... Internet marketing is correcting itself. When the stock market tumbles, short of a full-on crash,
they call it a "correction." Sometimes it happens
precipitously. Other times, it takes place over a period of
time. Likewise, I believe that Internet marketing, right now, is
going through a similar correction. It may not be as
precipitous as the stock market, but it's indeed quite
significant. To explain what I mean, let me back up a bit. If you've read Geoffrey Moore's "Crossing The Chasm,"
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm) then you
understand the product adoption curve. (In marketing and
academic circles, they call it the "Diffusion Process.") In plain English, it means that new markets go through a
certain adoption process that looks very much like a bell
curve. At first, new products are consumed by the innovators and
early adopters (i.e., niche and early markets). They're the
type of people who buy new things the moment they come out. Then, they are consumed by the majority (i.e., mainstream
markets, at the top of the bell curve, where products get
widely adopted by the majority of people). Finally, the laggards make up the late markets. They usually
wait until everyone else has tried the products, which are
no longer new. According to Moore, between the niches and the mainstream,
there's a gap. A chasm, as he calls it, especially with
technology. It's where things seem to slow down once a
product has saturated the early markets. But then, after a while, something happens. The product, if and when it crosses the chasm, enters the
mainstream (often called the "middle" or just the
"majority"), and becomes widespread. This is where the bulk of the market lies (about 68% of the
market pie, according to studies). And often, it happens
fast. Very fast. (For example, Moore's follow-up book,
"Inside the Tornado," explains this in detail.) What does this mean in terms of Internet marketing? It means that the geeks (e.g., the risk-takers, innovators,
Internet enthusiasts, and the like) are the first ones to
penetrate the Internet market. They set many precedents that
shape the way we do business online, whether it's through a
new method, software, business model, or teaching. (That's why we often call them "gurus.") We've seen this happen. Top marketers have entered the
market, sold many a product, and made massive amounts of
money. But now, things are starting to change. We're hitting
- if not crossing - the chasm. One obvious piece of evidence is the recent flurry of "death
of" reports. Whether they're meant to promote something or
not is a moot point. Clayton Makepeace listed his own predictions recently , and
I not only agree with them wholeheartedly but also view them
as part of this crossing of the chasm. To me, the most
salient point is that only 18% of the world's population is
online - but it's growing at a rapid rate, particularly in
Asia. If you don't believe me (or even Clayton), watch this
amazing video: http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/92 It's a presentation by a statistical researcher about income
distribution around the world, and how quickly some
countries are growing in terms of wealth and gross national
product, once the Internet enters them.
In short, the video shows that the Internet, while still in
its infancy, is growing at a rapid rate, and that there is
hyper-growth occurring right now in Asian and middle-Pacific
countries, such as Singapore, India, and of course, China. Let me put that aside for just a moment, and share with you
a few observations. (I will tie all of this together very
shortly, I promise.) Here's a question: Haven't you noticed lately how Internet marketing seminars
are changing? I mean, for many years seminars were not only filled to the
rim but also filled with the usual suspects who seem to
congregate there all the time. I remember going to seminar after seminar, and seeing the
same faces over and over again. The same million-dollar
marketers. The same "big names." The same expert speakers.
And very few newbies or unknowns. But in 2007, a shift started to happen. Some of those faces
are not showing up at seminars anymore. The number of old-
timers seems to be shrinking, while new faces are making
their appearances for the first time. With each passing seminar, it seems, the audience is slowly
being replaced with new marketers and total newbies - people
who are completely new to Internet marketing and even to the
Internet in general. More and more veteran marketers are retiring. Some are
leaving the Internet marketing field altogether. Many are no
longer attending seminars, speaking at them, or teaching
Internet marketing at all. Is it because the Internet marketing industry is dying or
jumping the shark? Not at all. Quite the contrary, in fact. While some Internet
marketers have moved on, many of them have simply refocused
their businesses on those three major markets I was
referring to earlier. To give you a hint, let me tell you a true story… At the last seminar my wife and I attended, I was surprised
to see that the vast majority of attendees was completely
new. The event was still packed to the rim (and even bigger
than before). But many of them admitted to us that this was
the first seminar they've ever attended.
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Michel Fortin is a direct response copywriter, marketing
strategy consultant, and instrumental in some of the most
lucrative online businesses and wildly successful marketing
campaigns to ever hit the web. For more articles like this
one, please visit his blog at http://www.michelfortin.com/
and subscribe to his RSS feed.
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